It seems like every time I look at the news these last couple of weeks, there is another piece predicting doom and gloom for the Democratic Party. The latest came from Harry Enten at CNN, who said the data shows the shutdown standoff in Washington is backfiring for the left.
“You might think,” he said, “given that the Republicans are in charge of both the House and the Senate, that a government shutdown might actually hurt the Republican brand. But in fact, it hasn’t. If anything, it’s been helped a little bit.”
Enten went on to evaluate the Democrats’ chances in the 2026 midterms. “If you look back to this point when Trump was president the first time around, Democrats were up 11 points. Look at where it is now — Democrats are ahead, but they’re actually only up three points. … This is a concerning number for Democrats because it’s considerably worse than they traditionally do in midterm elections when there’s a Republican president.”
Now, I believe Enten is about as good as it gets when crunching political numbers. But I am not buying it.
I tend to side with those reporting that more voters hold the Republicans accountable for the shutdown, as The Washington Post did this past Thursday. Over the last few decades, the Democrats — with a massive assist from the liberal mainstream media — have done an excellent job selling the idea that the Republican Party sides with “corporations over the people.”
Perception is everything in politics. The echo in the minds of tens of millions of Americans is still this Democratic sales job — despite the concurrent perception today that much of corporate America now leans left, or is completely “woke.” That in turn causes countless people to reflexively blame the Republicans for anything that goes wrong. The reality is, Republicans are still swimming upstream against decades of Democratic propaganda spread far and wide by media allies.
With regard to Enten’s second warning — that the Democrats are facing stiff headwinds come the midterms — I fear the opposite might happen. Basic history shows that since 1938, the sitting president’s party lost seats in 20 of the last 22 midterm elections.
As much as I hope I’m wrong, I believe the Democrats have a very good chance of pulling off a political trifecta this coming Tuesday, where Zohran Mamdani wins in New York City, Abigail Spanberger wins in Virginia, and Mikie Sherrill wins in New Jersey. While some are saying that won’t affect the midterms, I most humbly disagree.
If the Democrats do cash in on the trifecta, they can ride that momentum for a very long time. More than that, it will give socialist “populists” like Mamdani and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez an even larger soapbox to stand upon. They push the concept of “free for me” while blaming the wealthy — spot-welded to the GOP, of course — for all the problems plaguing those same hurting working-class Americans.
I speak with highly experienced Republicans on a regular basis; many do worry that the GOP has become complacent, unorganized or and tone-deaf. Others worry that “Trump fatigue” is settling in. And still others, who truly love the president, worry that when he is off the political stage come 2028, millions of 2024 MAGA voters will stay home.
I also speak with a great many incredibly talented Democratic operatives, who have contributed to an impressive number of local and national victories over the years. Those that I speak with are all eerily optimistic when it comes to 2026 and 2028.
In short, with regard to the “Democrats are in big trouble” stories popping up all over the place, I smell a rat — a big one. And if I were the Republican elephant, I would prepare for that rat to multiply and surround me.
Douglas MacKinnon is a former White House and Pentagon official.
