Some estimates suggest that half of all white-collar jobs will disappear as artificial intelligence advances. How will older white-collar workers displaced in the AI revolution fare?
Our recent book, “American Idle: Late-Career Job Loss in a Neoliberal Era,” summarizes interviews we conducted with 62 baby boomers who lost their white-collar jobs during another unemployment crisis: the 2008 Great Recession and its sluggish recovery. Statistics show that workers over age 50 experienced the highest rates of long-term joblessness. Their layoffs also coincided with a precarious stage of the life course: “too young to retire but too old to start all over,” as one of our interviewees put it. Gen Xers today face the same quandary.
There were, however, vastly different financial outcomes after these post-2008 layoffs. At one end of the spectrum were those boomers who experienced “hard falls.” Because long-term unemployment and back-to-back job losses were common within this group, some turned to accessing food pantries, applying for welfare benefits, or losing a home to a short sale or foreclosure. Job losses at the other end of the spectrum were “soft landings,” and individuals were more or less financially unscathed.
Several factors facilitated soft landings. For instance, because these interviewees experienced years of job stability, their extended length of service translated into generous severance packages. Several also departed with defined benefits pension plans in hand. A guaranteed income stream for the remainder of their lives allowed for an unplanned early retirement for some. Family members, such as employed spouses or wealthy parents, were another source of financial support.
Evidence suggests that compared to the boomers we studied, a larger proportion of Gen X are susceptible to hard falls than their predecessors. This demands a structural solution and a universal basic income might be the answer.
First, baby boomers entered the labor force when white-collar workers were rewarded with job security and financial stability. In contrast, today’s office workers are encouraged to always be on the lookout for new opportunities. Frequent job changes, however, translate into a much smaller severance package when length of service factors into the equation. And whereas many of our soft landers had pensions, Gen X entered the labor force just as these secure retirement plans were being replaced with 401(k)s.
Workers are expected to contribute a portion of their salary into these defined contribution plans. But because savings are personally invested, financial illiteracy and market volatility increase the level of risk. At the same time, low wage workers typically lack employer-supported retirement plans, and even if they do have access, they are less likely to participate due to financial hardship.
Not to mention the collective net worth of Gen X is about half that of boomers. Because this generation also carries the highest rates of debt, the ability to retire comfortably will be jeopardized. With lower rates of home ownership than boomers at the same age, many Gen Xers will miss out on the long-term gains that can be derived from owning property.
Finally, a growing share of older adults now live alone. In addition to lacking the financial support of an employed spouse, people who live alone tend to earn less than individuals who are married. This predisposes one-person Gen X households to a financial disadvantage that may turn a layoff into a hard fall.
There is always the possibility that AI-induced job losses don’t materialize, given the current failure of artificial intelligence to increase worker productivity. Still, advancements are inevitable and with almost 900,000 private sector employees having already lost their jobs and another 300,000 federal government employees out of work by the end of 2025, white-collar workers are under threat from many sides.
Older workers are encouraged to protect their finances in this unstable environment but as our research shows, it’s impossible to prepare for a bout of unemployment extended indefinitely by age discrimination in the hiring process.
Targeted education and training programs would empower unemployed Gen Xers to access fields in which job growth is predicted to increase. We must also consider developing a universal basic income program to address long-term joblessness among those older workers who are too young to collect Social Security. Such experiments in other countries have been successful in increasing both well-being and employment rates.
Here at home, several U.S. cities and counties, in both red and blue states, have already experimented with limited basic income programs. For white-collar Gen Xers seeking new employment, this could mean the difference between a soft landing with minimal financial strife, and a hard fall that stresses both personal households and other shrinking social safety nets.
Annette Nierobisz is professor of sociology at Carleton College in Northfield, Minn. Dana Sawchuk is professor and chair of sociology at Wilfrid Laurier University in Waterloo, Ontario. They are the authors of “American Idle: Late Career Job Loss in a Neoliberal Era” (Rutgers University Press, 2025).
