On the same day that the New York Mets were forced out of playoff contention, the incumbent mayor of New York City was forced out of the mayoral election. In politics and sports, all the money in the world cannot guarantee victory. Suddenly, former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) has a real chance to defeat Zohran Mamdani — although his campaign will need a run of luck not seen since the 1969 “Miracle” Mets.
Then again, New York politics have proven unpredictable. Not long ago, Adams was being talked about as a potential Democratic presidential nominee. Then the corruption investigations began to swirl, and New York’s political vultures swooped into the mayoral race. That included Cuomo, a long-list of city officials, and a little-known Democratic Socialist in the state legislature named Zohran Mamdani.
Mamdani ran a guerilla-style campaign, expertly using social media to exploit frustration over Gaza, the rising cost of living and President Trump. For New York’s political elite and average voters alike, a socialist winning the Democratic primary — in dominant fashion — was an earthquake whose aftershocks stretched from an epicenter in Manhattan all the way across New York state. In a Long Island diner, a friend recently confided to me, “I’m a lifelong Democrat. But I feel like I’m losing my home. Where can I go?”
Increasingly, I hear variations of that sentiment from New Yorkers in both parties. My state has become a battle-scarred front in a national ideological war. Downstate New York used to swing reliably between pragmatists hailing from the center-left and center-right. But in 2025, New York politics increasingly looks like a Coney Island hall of mirrors: distorted to the extremes. Centrists in both parties are dodging the continued shelling of democratic norms by the Trump administration on the far-right and the radical proposals of the far-left.
Now, centrist Mayor (turned Trump-ally) Adams is out. Although Republican Curtis Sliwa remains in the race, Cuomo has the best chance to defeat Mamdani. And the rest of the country is attempting to read the tea leaves of the 2026 midterms in this election.
The secret, however, is that there aren’t enough tea leaves in the mayor’s race to help anyone predict what will happen in 2026. Sure, if Mamdani wins with an unexpectedly narrow margin, it might offer some reassurance to disaffected Democratic centrists that we are not an endangered species. But even if Mandani romps to victory, New York Democrats shouldn’t overreact. Mamdani has proven to be a uniquely talented political communicator, and the number of Democratic Socialists that have actually been elected is small: only eight in the New York Legislature and three on the New York city council. What they lack in size, they make up for in decibels — but that’s not enough to hijack a party.
To understand the trajectory of New York politics, you have to look beyond the mayoral election to the race to succeed Democratic Rep. Jerry Nadler (D) and the reelection bid of Republican Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman.
Nadler represents New York’s 12th District, which stretches from the top of Central Park through Midtown down to 14th Street. Cuomo won the most votes there in the first-round of the primary, thanks to a mix of positive sentiment for the former governor and reluctant voters looking to stop Mamdani’s socialist politics. But when the ranked-choice votes were distributed, Mamdani eked out a win, topping Cuomo by 170 votes or 0.1 percent.
So next year’s primary to succeed Nadler poses a test of Mamdani’s personal influence and the politics he champions. New York state Assemblyman Micah Lasher, the seeming frontrunner, is viewed by some as part of Mamdani’s new inner circle. The Democrat who had previously advised mainstream pols like Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) quickly threw his support behind Mamdani after he won the primary and became a liaison between the insurgent candidate and the Democratic establishment. However, other candidates, including Jack Schlossberg, are eyeing the race.
Meanwhile, on Long Island, the Republican Nassau County Executive, Blakeman has assiduously worked to cultivate his MAGA bona fides. He has fought against transgender athletes, created a kind of volunteer militia and emphasized his relationship with Trump. Agree or disagree with his politics, he is a cunning electoral force. If his Democratic opponent is competitive, it will spell trouble for Republicans in 2026.
To understand the future of New York politics, you must look beyond just the mayoral election to the broader dynamics under the surface of races across the state. One thing is clearly established by both the Mets and the mayor: in New York, only the unpredictable is predictable.
Steve Israel represented New York in the House of Representatives for eight terms and was chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee from 2011 to 2015.
